In this survey, only 36% of voters in the state hold favorable views of Trump, while 57% hold unfavorable views.
What is remarkable is that these figures are practically unchanged based on how Wisconsin voters viewed Trump in August 2021 (38% for/55% against) and October 2021 (38%/57%).
There have been no a softening in the public’s attitude toward Trump — even in a swing state like Wisconsin, which he won in 2016 and lost in 2020.
Why is that? Here are two theories (which are not mutually exclusive):
1) Trump never really left. Former presidents like Barack Obama and George W. Bush tried to hide from the public eye early in their successors’ terms. In fact, despite being away from the office for a long time, the two men always keep relatively low profiles publicly.
Trump is doing the exact opposite. He yearns to be in the spotlight – constantly injecting himself into high profile fights while continuing to insist that the 2020 election was stolen from him.
You can’t really miss someone who never left.
2) There are no unmoved voters when it comes to Trump. We’ve never had a more polarizing president in the White House, so it makes sense that we’ve never had a more polarizing former president either.
What usually happens is that people who are not closely tied to a party tend to mellow first with a former president. But Trump may leave very few voters unsure of what they thought of him. Either you love it or you hate it, in the office or out.
Point: While the Democrats’ election outlook in 2022 is full of doom and gloom, if Trump is the GOP nominee in 2024 and his numbers stay close to what they are in a swing state like Wisconsin, then the President Joe Biden has a solid chance of getting a second term.