The Trailer: Five Things to Watch on Day One

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David Weigel is absent. Amber Phillips of The Washington Post, author of the day of the week Policy Bulletin 5-Minute Fixbrings you today’s trailer.

In this edition: High-level GOP governors dodge key primary challenges, Democrats’ political battles with crime and what’s going on with John Fetterman.

For Kate Middleton, a squirming four-year-old sticking her tongue out at the cameras is “darling”. For the rest of us parents, it’s called a tantrum. This is the trailer.

It’s day one in seven states! Here are five things to watch out for:

#1: Little to no challenges for high-level GOP governors:

Overthrowing a sitting governor is one of the hardest things to do in politics. And Tuesday marks the start of some high-level gubernatorial re-elections, and little evidence that they are in jeopardy.

In South Dakota, Governor Kristi L. Noem (R) has become a national figure during the pandemic for resisting restrictions. She has only one nominal primary challenger, far-right Rep. Steve Haugaard (R), who is challenging her in part for her veto of legislation banning transgender women from playing in women’s high school sports. (A rare deviation for Noem from the hard right.)

The top Democrat in the State House, Jamie Smith, is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination against Noem. Smith is the party‘s biggest contender since Democrats came within three points of losing Noem in 2018. But he has yet to prove he can seriously challenge Noem, and as a Black Hills columnist points out Pioneer, Republicans have won every governor’s race in the state since 1978. Noem’s strong expected re-election could prepare her to run for president soon.

Meanwhile, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (right) faces no primary opposition on Tuesday — and no prominent Democratic opposition in November as she seeks a second term. (Top Democrats continued to challenge her.)

In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who survived a recall effort last year, faces 25 challengers on the ballot. (A reminder that in California, the top two voters, regardless of party, will be on the ballot in November.) But Newsom has no reason to expect to feel vulnerable again, polls in the State showing him strongly ahead of all. its main challengers.

The exception to this pattern could be in New Mexico, where Republicans are trying to prevent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) from winning a second term. On Tuesday, they will organize a primary to choose their candidate. According to the Cook Political Report, longtime local meteorologist Mark Ronchetti – who ran and lost for the Senate in 2020 – is the favorite to win Tuesday’s primary against several other candidates. Looking ahead to November, such a Republican-friendly environment nationwide could make this race competitive.

#2: In California: The fate of a Republican who voted to impeach Trump:

Of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol by a pro-Trump mob, only six are running for re-election. In California, Rep. David G. Valadao (R) is one of them. “His inciting rhetoric was un-American, abhorrent and absolutely an inscrutable offense,” Valadao said at the time, speaking of Trump. Valadao faces a main challenger on the right because of his impeachment vote. But unlike other House Republicans who have turned against Trump, Valadao has the backing of House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, whose district is nearby.

The Valadao Central District in California was redesigned this year to become slightly more Democrat-friendly. And California’s primary system means local Democratic politician Rudy Salas could advance alongside Valadao in the general election, instead of his impeachment challenger.

#3: Also in California: Another test of Trump’s approval power:

Another California congressional race presents a far more low-key test of Trump’s approval power than some of last month’s primaries, such as Georgia’s. But once again, Trump went up against local Republicans in a primary. For an open seat outside Sacramento, Trump endorsed a slick local Republican, Kevin Kiley. The more traditional Republicans in the area favor the local sheriff, Scott Jones. (Kiley challenged Newsom in a recall last year.) Only one of those Republicans is likely to qualify for the November election, given that Democrats have Iraq War veteran Kermit Jones. , which will likely get enough votes to continue. November vote.

#4: The Democrats’ Political Struggles Against Crime:

Local Democrats are struggling to respond to rising crime rates – high crime is happening in red and blue states, but Democrats, for some reason, seem to be more defensive than Republicans for this electoral cycle. Rising crime in San Francisco could lead to the ousting of San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin on Tuesday.

A new poll from across the country in New York shows Mayor Eric Adams (D) disapproving on a large scale of the work he is doing, especially when it comes to tackling crime. Siena College shows that only 29 percent say the former police captain is doing a great or good job, while 64 percent say he is doing only fair or poor work. Its negatives are particularly high for tackling crime – 74% – and tackling homelessness – 76%.

Adams campaigned as a no-nonsense former police officer who would focus on public safety. President Biden, who is trying to steer the Democratic Party more toward the center of public safety, visited Adams this winter as an apparent example of how the party should talk about fighting crime and supporting crime. the police. Yet his approval image has crumbled since he took office in January as he tries to adopt a moderate political approach that unsettles the Liberals.

Another Tuesday primary where crime has been an issue: the Los Angeles mayoral race, where billionaire Rick Caruso, a former Republican, offered a tough talk on crime.

#5: Montana: A former Trump under siege Cabinet Secretary introduces himself to the Congress:

In 2018, Trump pressured Ryan Zinke to step down as Interior Secretary just two years after a series of high-profile ethics violations. Now that Montana gets a new U.S. House seat due to population growth — for a total of two — Zinke is back. He’s the top Republican candidate for that new congressional seat, and he’s running with Trump’s endorsement. Zinke will likely face Democrat and first-place candidate Cora Neumann in November. Even with Zinke’s controversial political backdrop, western Montana is Trump country, and it’s favored to win.

Tuesday’s primaries test Democrats on crime, GOP on eligibility, Trump, by Hannah Knowles and Annie Linskey

“Democrats, for some reason, tend to take a little longer than their Republican counterparts to wake up to political realities.”

During Watergate, John Mitchell left his wife. She called Bob Woodward, by Manuel Roig-Franzia

Fifty years after Watergate, a glimpse into how a famous Washington wife helped bring down her husband, Nixon’s former attorney general: ‘Please nail him. I hope you get the bastard.

Louisiana lawmakers must redraw the maps, propose a second majority-minority district, by Mark Ballard and Sam Karin

Exhibit A of why Democrats are going to the courts on redistricting when they are dominated by the Legislature.

Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett begins transition to replace Eddie Bernice Johnson in Congress, by Grommers Jeffers Jr.

“I don’t know if there will be another black woman who goes down to the Statehouse, does a first term, then goes to the US House.”

With unprecedented spending, Caruso is everywhere. Can the billionaire become overexposed? by James Rainey

In the Los Angeles mayoral race, a look at the downsides of being a billionaire.

Voting touchscreens in Georgia pose a cybersecurity risk, By Mark Niesse

Hackers could reverse votes if they were able to break into these voting machines.

What’s wrong with John Fetterman?

Who is he: He is trying to help the Democrats keep control of the US Senate in November by winning the Pennsylvania seat vacated by Senator Patrick J. Toomey, a Republican. He is the state’s lieutenant governor and easily won the Democratic primary last month. He will face Trump-backed Republican candidate Mehmet Oz (better known as Dr. Oz) in November.

Why it’s in the news: Pennsylvania is an important race for Senate control, and Fetterman is a unique candidate for Democrats: He’s 6-foot-9, bald, and campaigns in a hoodie and athletic shorts. He is a supporter of Bernie Sanders who is digging into rural pro-Trump communities.

But his campaign was overshadowed by serious questions about his health. He said he was “nearly dead” from a stroke days before the primary, and is still recovering. On the day of the primary, he announced that he was going to undergo surgery following a heart condition. The campaign has since explained that the underlying condition is much more serious than it first revealed, reported Michael Scherer and Hannah Knowles of The Washington Post.

Fetterman, whom advisers tout as a “genuine, outspoken, non-BS populist,” may have damaged his credibility by not being completely candid with voters about his health, some Democrats worry. This Senate race is seen as one of the best opportunities for Democrats to clinch a seat this midterm season, so the controversy over Fetterman’s changing health history is of particular concern to his party.

…4 days before the special House primary in Alaska

… 7 days before the primaries in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Dakota, and the special election in Texas’ 34th congressional district

… 14 days before primaries in Virginia and runoffs in Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia

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